A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
