Just eight weeks in the past when the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or the source of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have piled up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
His opener came from a superb shot, curled right inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, will not continue to thrashing the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
