Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
